Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
